SPC MD 1003



MD 1003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST LA…SOUTHERN MS

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Mesoscale Discussion 1003
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...Southeast LA...Southern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 061430Z - 061530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes is increasing
and tornado watch will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends have shown an increase in updraft
strength and rotation with the supercells embedded within the
convective line moving across southeast LA. Mesoanalysis estimates
over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists ahead of this line, promoted by a
very moist air mass characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s. Southerly/south-southeasterly surface winds ahead of the line
are also relatively strong, with 20 kt reported at several stations
south of the Lake Pontchartrain. Recent VAD profiles from both LIX
and MOB show 20+ kt of 0-1 km vertical shear and over 100 m2/s2 of
0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Given the current trends and
favorable downstream air mass, a tornado watch will likely be needed
soon.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30749091 31269048 31208853 29538877 29269032 29459147
            30299111 30749091 

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