SPC MD 1005


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Mesoscale Discussion 1005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Idaho...portions of western
Wyoming...northern Utah...far northeast Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 061843Z - 062045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm will likely initiate/increase in coverage in the
next 2-3 hours. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the
primary threats. Greater storm organization will occur in northwest
Wyoming vicinity with deep-layer shear maximized here with
diminishing magnitudes farther southwest. A WW is possible in the
next 1-2 hours for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...A few elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in the
discussion area. Areas away from this activity are receiving full
sunshine with dewpoints holding in the low to upper 40s F. Guidance
has tended to be too low with both temperatures and dewpoints this
morning. That being said, buoyancy may reach the higher end of the
expected 500-1000 J/kg range later this afternoon. 12Z SLC/LKN/RIW
observed soundings showed near 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft which would support a threat of large hail.
Strong surface heating will increase low-level lapse rates amidst
relatively large temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface making
damaging convective gusts another concern. The overall severe threat
will be maximized in northern portions of the discussion area where
better deep-layer shear will exist. Cumulus development is already
occurring on the higher terrain and scattered storm initiation will
likely occur in the next 2-3 hours with continued surface heating
and the approach of a weak mid-level perturbation moving northeast
out of central California (per water vapor imagery). A WW is
possible in the next 1-2 hours for parts of the area.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41001445 42541328 44151226 44761156 44861041 44630960
            43800960 42650983 40851161 40301257 40181366 40401423
            40581442 41001445 

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