SPC MD 1006



MD 1006 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR TX HILL COUNTRY

MD 1006 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...TX Hill Country

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 061843Z - 062045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Environment is conditionally supportive of damaging wind
gusts and isolated hail if storm develop. Trends will be monitored
for additional convective initiation and the resulting need for a
watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown a building cumulus
field across the TX Hill Country for the past hour or so as
temperatures climb into the upper 80s/low 90s amidst upper 60s/low
70s dewpoints. Modifying recent RAP soundings with current
observations suggests little to no convective inhibition remains.
This erosion of the convective inhibition is also confirmed by the
deeper convective development over Kerr County. 

Warm and dry mid-level conditions suggest that it could still be a
hour or two before the air mass is conducive to more than isolated
storm coverage. Even then, storm longevity will likely be impacted
by the development of strong downdrafts and overall uncertainty
regarding thunderstorm coverage leads to lower watch probability.
That being said, any of the more persistent/robust storms could
produce damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. Trends will be
monitored for additional convective initiation and the resulting
need for a watch.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   30089967 30439837 30129732 29399663 28339697 27749820
            27869915 28229975 28670014 29230020 30089967 

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