SPC MD 1007



MD 1007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL MS…WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL AL

MD 1007 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...Central MS...West-central/south-central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 061954Z - 062200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Conditional risk for damaging wind gusts and brief
tornadoes. Limited storm coverage may temper the need for a watch
but convective trends will be monitored closely.

DISCUSSION...19Z surface analysis places a low over Vicksburg, MS on
the central LA/MS border. Another low exists farther northeast over
far southeast AR with a somewhat diffuse warm front extending
eastward from the low into central MS and then
eastward/southeastward through central AL. Visible imagery shows
partly cloudy skies across MS. Resultant filtered diurnal heating
has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid 80s amidst low/mid
70s dewpoints. More cloud cover has persistent thus far over areas
farther downstream (i.e. west-central AL) with temperatures still in
the upper 70s/low 80s. 

Even with these warm and humid conditions, instability will be
limited by warm temperatures and poor lapse rates. Consequently,
given this limited instability, dry mid-levels, and lack of stronger
large-scale forcing for ascent, deep convection may struggle to
persist. Given the favorable low-level vertical shear profiles, any
more persistent/robust storms would likely have an associated risk
for damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes. Current expectation is
for limited storm coverage to temper the need for a watch but
convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Hart.. 06/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31699023 32429064 33389027 33488867 32568665 31258697
            31388843 31488956 31699023 

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