SPC MD 1009



MD 1009 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 336… FOR CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TX

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Mesoscale Discussion 1009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...Central into Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336...

Valid 062241Z - 070015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a brief
tornado or two will spread southeastward into this evening.

DISCUSSION...At 2230Z, a cluster of intense thunderstorms over
central TX is moving southeastward toward the southwestern Houston
metro area. Other thunderstorms are developing further south in the
vicinity of a surface boundary that has been pushing slowly
northwestward during the day. Very warm and moist conditions are
supporting very strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg in
place per objective mesoanalyses and modified forecast soundings.
Effective shear of 40-50 kt is more than sufficient for storm
organization, with both supercells and upscale-growing segments
possible into this evening. 

As these storms spread east-southeastward with time, damaging wind
will likely become the primary threat, given the very warm/moist
boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates downstream of ongoing
convection, with some cold pool generation/propagation possible as
upscale growth occurs. Warm temperatures aloft will tend to limit a
more substantial hail threat, though any supercell structures will
remain capable of producing at least marginally severe hail. While
low-level flow is weak, a brief tornado or two will also be possible
with any supercell in the vicinity of the modified sea breeze
boundary where surface winds are locally backed.

..Dean.. 06/06/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   26609732 27129853 28529890 29609893 29659830 29699715
            29789597 29559538 29049517 28269601 27749680 26609704
            26609732 

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