SPC MD 1011



MD 1011 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL MS…CENTRAL AL

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Mesoscale Discussion 1011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2019

Areas affected...east-central MS...central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070106Z - 070200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Transient supercells will be capable of intermittent
strengthening of low-level mesocyclones with the strongest updrafts.
A brief/weak tornado is possible this evening.  The isolated
character and magnitude of the threat will probably preclude the
need for a small tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a band of convection, from
north-central MS southeastward into west-central AL, with embedded
discrete cores immediately east of a surface low over east-central
MS.  Surface observations show backed southeasterly surface winds
east of the ongoing convective activity.  KBMX VAD show the
low-level winds acting to enlarge the hodograph (around 200 m2/s2
0-1km SRH).  The 00z Birmingham, AL raob showed a very moist/deep
boundary layer with just over 100 J/kg MLCAPE, all located below
500mb.  The equilibrium level (based on a 100mb mean parcel) is just
below the -20 degrees C level and would likely not support much
lightning with the stronger updrafts.  The moist-adiabatic lapse
rate/pseudo tropical profile will not cool substantially during the
evening.

As a belt of modestly strong, southerly 850mb flow shifts northward
across central and then into north-central AL and northwest GA
through the late evening, expecting episodic strengthening of small
mesocyclones in the very moist airmass over far east-central MS in
the near term and later into parts of central AL.  A brief/weak
tornado may accompany the strongest circulations.

..Smith/Grams.. 06/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31848693 32328815 33078876 33448885 33628833 33478722
            32638611 32028611 31868615 31848693 

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