SPC MD 1013



MD 1013 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN MISSISSIPPI…WESTERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019

Areas affected...central/eastern Mississippi...western/central
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071351Z - 071515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Bowing segment, capable of isolated damaging wind gusts,
may continue for a few more hours. The sparse nature of the damaging
wind threat suggests that a WW issuance is not likely at this time.

DISCUSSION...A short convective bowing segment has developed across
central MS over the past few hours. This segment is propagating
eastward while traversing a modest low-level CAPE gradient, with a
warming/deepening, moist boundary layer in place downstream. Latest
HRRR guidance suggests that this convective cluster should persist
eastward in some capacity into the late morning/early afternoon
hours. Current mesoanalysis, and KGWX and KBMX VAD profiler data all
depict a weak kinematic flow field in place, with less than 35 knots
of bulk effective shear and around 50 m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH.

With regards to severe potential, pulsing cells embedded within the
bowing segment are likely to become quickly undercut by the
convective cold pool, which may hinder downward transport of higher
momentum flow aloft. As the storms progress into a more heated
airmass, some of the stronger cores may intensify briefly enough to
allow water-loaded downdrafts to transport a few damaging gusts to
the surface. Still, the sparse nature of the wind damage threat
suggests that a WW issuance is not necessary at this time.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32808991 32668786 32398636 31758641 31458700 31428837
            31518942 31688987 32188998 32808991 

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