SPC MD 1014



MD 1014 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALABAMA…PARTS OF WESTERN GEORGIA

MD 1014 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019

Areas affected...Central and eastern Alabama...parts of western
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071658Z - 071900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Linear segments will continue to move eastward across the
area during the early afternoon hours. Some of the stronger segments
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Convective trends
will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...A relatively small but organized MCS continues to move
eastward across central Alabama at around 40 knots. Ahead of the
MCS, ample afternoon insolation has promoted a moderately buoyant
airmass, with up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE noted. Shear however, remains
modest, with effective bulk shear values generally under 35 knots
noted. As such, questions remain regarding how much further
organization may occur with the MCS, particularly with regards to an
organized damaging wind threat. Further heating/insolation may
promote further intensification of a few cells embedded within the
MCS, which in turn may produce at least a few severe gusts
associated with water-loaded downdrafts amidst a very moist sfc-850
mb layer. However, the density of severe wind events warranting a WW
issuance remains uncertain and as such, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for possible further intensification and a
subsequent need of a watch.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31728799 32768753 33038729 33198614 33378493 33188435
            32878413 32338409 31708455 31358500 31218586 31268776
            31728799 

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