SPC MD 1015



MD 1015 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST WY…COLORADO FRONT RANGE…NORTHEAST NM

MD 1015 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019

Areas affected...Far Southeast WY...Colorado Front Range...Northeast
NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071837Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts are possible this afternoon across
the central and southern High Plains.

DISCUSSION...Despite limited low-level moisture, ongoing deep
boundary-layer mixing in the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates
is resulting in air mass destabilization. This destabilizing
environment has resulted in more robust convection over the past
hour or so with a few storms now deep enough to produce lightning.
Large-scale forcing for ascent will remain rather nebulous
throughout the afternoon with most storms likely remaining over the
higher terrain until they are deep enough for the southwesterly flow
aloft to induce a more easterly storm motion off the terrain. A few
storms may be able to move off the higher terrain, with an attendant
threat for damaging downburst wind gusts as these high-based
thunderstorms collapse over the lower elevations. Anticipated
isolated and marginal nature of this threat will preclude watch
issuance.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36020568 40810563 41900480 41060378 37380360 35250404
            34930508 36020568 

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