SPC MD 1016



MD 1016 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF WY

MD 1016 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019

Areas affected...Much of WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071941Z - 072145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of strong wind gusts are possible
over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows a cold front extending
from west-central WY northeastward to north-central WY and then back
eastward into the far northeast portion of the state. A frontal low
is centered about 30 miles east of RIW. Despite modest low-level
moisture, air mass across much of WY ahead of this front continues
to gradually destabilize amidst strong diurnal heating and deep
boundary-layer mixing beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. 

Forcing for ascent along and ahead of the cold front, aided by
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent ahead an approaching
shortwave trough, within this destabilizing environment is expected
to result in eventual convective initiation. Instability will remain
rather limited, but moderate southwesterly mid- and upper-level flow
will result in mean cloud-layer winds around 45-50 kt and the
potential for occasional bowing segments capable of strong wind
gusts. Limited severe coverage will likely preclude the need for a
watch.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   41770915 42331067 43581022 44240896 44620805 44830714
            44640649 43680618 42570691 41770915 

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