SPC MD 1017



MD 1017 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019

Areas affected...Central into northeast South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072007Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Stronger storms may produce an isolated damaging wind gust
or two. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop this
afternoon as a small mid-level shortwave trough traverses the area,
providing deep-layer ascent. Ample solar radiation/boundary layer
heating is also contributing to both lift and destabilization, with
up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE noted. A few transient supercell structures
have been noted immediately northeast of CAE within the past hour,
likely due to slightly enhanced low-level shear present along a
diffuse baroclinic zone, roughly paralleling the SC/NC border. While
the CAE VAD profiler depicts a curved hodograph in the lowest 1 km,
the weak magnitudes of the winds aloft (and thus the small size of
the hodographs), suggest that any organized updrafts that becomes
sustained will likely acquire brief periods of low-level rotation at
best. Such storms will be capable of producing a couple damaging
wind gusts, and a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.

Given the short duration and spatially sparse nature of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   33808068 34088111 34478085 34618042 34477957 34047879
            33657874 33397893 33237944 33538034 33808068 

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