SPC MD 1018



MD 1018 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WY…FAR SOUTHEAST MT…WESTERN SD…NE PANHANDLE

MD 1018 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019

Areas affected...Eastern WY...Far Southeast MT...Western SD...NE
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 072054Z - 072330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated.
Some of these storms could produce strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...20Z surface analysis places a cold front from central
ND southwestward into northwest SD and then westward into
north-central WY. Air mass ahead of this front across the Dakotas
has remained capped while only minimal convective inhibition remains
across much of WY. Portion of this front across WY and western SD is
expected to slow its forward progression while the northern portion
remains more progressive.

Expectation is for thunderstorm coverage and strength to gradually
increase across central WY as ascent attendant to the shortwave
trough moving through UT/ID moves eastward. This activity is then
expected to move northeastward, with the front augmenting lift and 
strengthening ongoing cells. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft
will result in fast storm motion while the deeply mixed boundary
layer supports strong cold pool development. Trends are being
monitored across this region for evidence of this convective
evolution and resulting potential for a watch.

Farther south (across southeast WY/western NE Panhandle), a cluster
of cold pool dominated thunderstorms is moving northeastward. Deeply
mixed boundary layer downstream may promote occasionally strong wind
gusts. There is a low probability this cluster evolves into a more
organized convective system.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   44070575 45500430 45340267 43950176 41850202 41370447
            44070575 

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