SPC MD 1020



MD 1020 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MS…WESTERN AL

MD 1020 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1020
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2019

Areas affected...Eastern MS...Western AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072135Z - 072300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will continue to pose a threat of
locally damaging wind into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorm clusters are ongoing at 2130Z
across eastern MS, with activity beginning to move into western AL.
The thermodynamic environment across the region is characterized by
generally weak midlevel lapse rates, but also rich low-level
moisture and temperatures warming to near 90F downstream of ongoing
storms, supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. 

Area VWPs suggest the strongest shear (effective shear of 30-40 kt)
is located across the southern half of the MCD area, within a region
of moderate midlevel westerly flow to the southeast of a
well-defined upper trough to the northwest. Storms across southeast
MS into southwest AL may display supercell characteristics at times,
with a threat of locally damaging wind and some (generally
subsevere) hail.  

Across the northern portion of the MCD area, shear is somewhat
weaker, but instability is more than sufficient to support strong
convection, and ongoing cumulus development across
west-central/northwest AL suggests upstream clusters should persist
into this area, with a corresponding threat of locally damaging wind
associated with any upscale growing segments. 

While some sporadic damaging wind is possible across portions of the
MCD area, at this time the overall threat appears too limited in
coverage/intensity for watch issuance.

..Dean/Grams.. 06/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31148878 32828894 33848874 34258851 34748716 34548683
            32088715 30998744 30678793 30508854 30508901 31148878 

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