SPC MD 1024



MD 1024 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA…NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA…FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...northeast South Dakota...far
western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081759Z - 082000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat is increasing for storms capable of producing
mainly damaging winds and large hail. A WW issuance is possible in
the near-term.

DISCUSSION...A 500 mb shortwave trough, located across the northern
Rockies, is beginning to eject into the northern High Plains, with a
surface trough located well to the east across portions of the
northern Plains, where a gradual increase in convection has been
noted. Currently, a cold front is slowly traversing the
central/eastern Dakotas, with ample heating of the boundary layer
contributing to modest buoyancy (MLCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg).
The cold front will likely serve as the primary lifting mechanism
for triggering additional convective development through the
afternoon hours. Speed shear is present throughout a deep-layer of
the troposphere (evident via the latest RAP forecast soundings),
though this shear is unidirectional in nature. The unidirectional
shear profiles, linear/frontal forcing amidst a weakly capped
environment, and lack of upper-level lifting mechanisms with the 500
mb trough lagging to the west, will all lead to
multicellular/quasi-linear line segments along/immediately ahead of
the front. 

The 10-20F T/Td spread within the sfc-850 mb layer will encourage
enough evaporative cooling to promote damaging wind gusts, with
large hail also possible given the 6.5+ C/km lapse rates present
through much of the troposphere. A WW issuance is possible in the
near term to address the increasing severe threat.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   46149572 45889672 45869727 46009758 46389769 46909746
            47689698 48209645 48549595 48579567 48269545 47049547
            46149572 

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