SPC MD 1025



MD 1025 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST AL…CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST GA

MD 1025 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1025
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019

Areas affected...Southeast AL...Central/Southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 081815Z - 082015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as thunderstorm
coverage increases this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low just west of ANB
(in east-central AL) with a warm front extending eastward across
central GA into central SC. Another low is centered over far
northeast MS (near TUP) with a surface trough extending eastward to
the east-central AL low and then southwestward into far southern AL.
Conditions ahead of the surface trough and south of the warm from
over east-central/southeast AL and central/southwest GA are
characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, dewpoints in
the low 70s, and precipitable water values approaching 2 inches.
Recent mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg for much of the
region.

In contrast to the favorable thermodynamic environment, winds
throughout much of the troposphere are very weak (i.e. less than 25
kt through 300 mb) and the overall kinematic environment is
unsupportive of organized thunderstorms. Consequently, a
predominantly multicell mode is anticipated. A few of these storms
may produce strong enough downbursts for isolated damaging wind
gusts. Marginal and isolated nature of the threat will preclude the
need for watch.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30698475 31078580 31478619 32018618 33028545 33758414
            33098226 30968328 30698475 

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