SPC MD 1026



MD 1026 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO…FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS…SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA

MD 1026 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado...far northwest
Kansas...southwest into central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 081918Z - 082045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in convective coverage is expected over the
next few hours, with storms initiating mainly along the cold front,
and perhaps along a weak confluence zone. The more organized storms
may pose a damaging wind/large hail threat, with isolated very large
hail possible, especially across parts of northeast Colorado into
southwest Nebraska. A WW issuance will likely be needed by 20Z to
address the severe potential.

DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to sag southward across the
area, where multiple hours of insolation, beneath relatively steep
(7.0+ C/km) lapse rates throughout the troposphere, has contributed
to weakening convective inhibition and increasing instability (with
up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE noted). At least one low-level confluence
zone was identified via visible satellite imagery, which may
contribute to low-level lift for additional convection to initiate
later this afternoon. Compared to areas farther north, mid-level
flow will be oriented somewhat more perpendicular to the cold front,
suggesting that convection may be more quasi-discrete in nature,
with both multicellular clusters supercells possible. A couple
sustained supercell structures, perhaps producing isolated instances
of very large hail, may be observed in northeast Colorado into
southwest Nebraska, where sfc-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km are
expected. 

Current thinking is that convection will first initiate immediately
along the cold front across central Nebraska into northeast Colorado
in the next couple of hours. A WW issuance will likely be needed by
20Z to address both developing severe threats.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39920439 41320195 42850049 43389916 42989800 41289789
            40619815 39769990 38870333 39920439 

Read more



Source link

  • Editor