SPC MD 1029



MD 1029 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342… FOR EASTERN ND…NORTHWEST MN

MD 1029 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019

Areas affected...Eastern ND...Northwest MN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342...

Valid 082156Z - 082330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for sporadic severe wind gusts will continue
until around 6-7 PM CDT across primarily the eastern portion of WW
342 in northwest MN.

DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, generally disorganized convection is ongoing
across the eastern portion of WW 342, to the east of a cold front
currently located from northeast SD into southeast ND and northwest
MN. While moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) is in place
ahead of the front, stronger midlevel flow/deep-layer shear is
generally lagging behind the front, which is likely one reason that
pre-frontal convection has remained disorganized. However, steep
low-level lapse rates and moderate unidirectional low-level flow may
support sporadic severe wind gusts, especially across the MN portion
of WW 342, where temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. 

Post-frontal elevated convection may move into the western portion
of WW 342 within the next 1-2 hours, though this activity is
expected to generally remain subsevere. Additional redevelopment
cannot be ruled out near the front across southeast ND, though this
scenario remains uncertain due to substantial cloudiness across this
area.

..Dean.. 06/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48739437 47439433 46849539 46139575 46009757 46009802
            46019800 47919704 49019649 49009516 49319514 49369508
            49399492 49349480 48759463 48739437 

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