SPC MD 1031



MD 1031 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NM AND WEST TX

MD 1031 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019

Areas affected...Portions of Far eastern NM and West TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082337Z - 090100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and
perhaps some hail are possible this evening. Coverage should remain
too isolated for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has recently developed
southeast of Clovis, NM, with other towering cumulus noted further
south along a diffuse dryline. A weak vorticity maximum is evident
on water vapor imagery across southern NM and this feature may aid
in the development of additional widely scattered thunderstorms
through 8:00 PM CDT. Any initial development would occur within a
hot/dry regime near the dryline, with a threat of dry microbursts
given steep low/midlevel lapse rates and large temperature/dewpoint
spreads. If storms are able to move into a somewhat more moist and
unstable environment east of the dryline, around 30 kt of effective
shear may support weakly rotating updrafts with a threat of hail in
addition to the potential for severe wind gusts. 

Given that storm development is expected to remain quite isolated
across this area, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Dean/Grams.. 06/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34110309 34670299 34890227 34770156 33460158 30750254
            30900356 31000380 31980321 33120311 34110309 

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