SPC MD 1036


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Mesoscale Discussion 1036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2019

Areas affected...west Kansas and south-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345...

Valid 090408Z - 090545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and gusty winds
continue across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #345. Additionally, a
tornado threat will continue for the next hour or so with a cluster
of supercell thunderstorms to the south-southeast of Goodland, KS.
The exact evolution of these thunderstorms may require either an
extension of the current watch or the issuance of a new watch.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercell thunderstorms remain ongoing
across portions of northwest Kansas, to the southeast of Goodland.
One of these thunderstorms is located ahead of the surface front,
with additional supercells developing along an east-southeast
advancing surface front. These thunderstorms continue to be capable
of producing all severe modes: tornado, wind, and large hail.
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the long-term evolution
of these thunderstorms. It is likely that a substantial cold pool
has developed beneath these thunderstorms given the amount of mass
the storms have processed. This would tend to suggest that the
thunderstorms should continue to move east-southeast, accelerating
with time, into the instability axis. At the same time, if the cold
pool is not well established at present, the thunderstorm complex
may evolve more eastward -- aligning closer to the effective
deep-layer shear vectors, before the cold pool strengthens,
eventually turning south. In the former scenario, an extension in
space southward of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #345 would be
necessary, whereas with the latter scenario, a new Severe
Thunderstorm Watch would be necessary to encompass portions of
Wichita's county warning area. 

To the northeast of this cluster of supercells, another cluster of
severe thunderstorms have developed along the front to the
east-northeast of Goodland. These thunderstorms have had a history
of being capable of hail and gusty winds, and should continue to
move east along with the surface front. 

Still farther northeast, across south-central Nebraska, earlier
severe thunderstorms have waned in intensity slightly and are no
longer severe. These thunderstorms should continue to move east this
evening and overnight before outrunning the better thermodynamics
and diminishing.

..Marsh/Grams.. 06/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38610314 39550312 39570207 39990203 40010134 40350127
            40340014 40449996 40699993 40689939 41019938 41039826
            40719827 40709781 39999783 39999795 39209795 39209851
            39129851 39129904 38369905 38359957 38279959 38250201
            38600201 38610314 

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