SPC MD 1037



MD 1037 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 345…346… FOR CENTRAL KANSAS

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Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2019

Areas affected...central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345...346...

Valid 090728Z - 090930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345, 346
continues.

SUMMARY...A bowing cluster of strong storms remains capable of
producing large hail, and possibly damaging winds locally.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a relatively well-organized,
bowing cluster of storms moving east-southeast across central Kansas
at this time.  The leading edge of the bow -- south of a comma head
in the Rooks/Osborne/Ellis/Russell County area -- has accelerated
over the past hour, across the Barton County area.

Latest objective analyses indicate that the cluster of storms is
translating through the northeastern fringe of greater CAPE, with
strong capping indicated downstream.  The convection is also
shifting east of the main axis of the southerly low-level jet --
with these factors suggestive that:

1). storms are likely ingesting parcels originating above the
boundary layer, and

2). convection will likely begin to diminish in intensity within the
next 1-2 hours.

Meanwhile however, as storms remain near the axis of greater
instability, risk for large hail -- and a locally damaging gust or
two -- remain possible.  Some east-southeastward expansion of watch
346 may be needed if convection remains sufficiently organized as
the cluster approaches the Wichita area.

..Goss.. 06/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39179902 39259831 38929752 38489638 37429684 37169822
            37459905 38549959 38569905 39179902 

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