SPC MD 1038


MD 1038 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2019

Areas affected...Central into southern Oklahoma...north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091403Z - 091600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An MCS is expected to progress southward towards Texas
over the next few hours. Large hail is the main threat given the
elevated nature of convection, though a damaging wind gust or two
are also possible. A WW issuance is not expected at this time given
the anticipated isolated nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster of elevated convection has
recently organized into a forward propagating MCS, which is
currently tracking southward across central OK. Within the past hour
or so, hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter have been reported, in
addition to a few damaging wind gusts. The MCS currently appears to
be rooted above the boundary layer, with parcels being ingested
within the 850-700 mb layer. The MCS is currently traversing the
eastern edge of a LLJ axis, with 850-700 mb WAA maximized along the
trajectory of the MCS in central OK. The WAA has likely been the
main forcing mechanism for initiating cells that have been
sustaining the MCS up to this point. 

The 12Z observed OUN sounding showed near 9 C/km lapse rates within
the 700-500 mb layer, which will continue to support the large hail
threat. Given the elevated nature of the convection, large hail is
expected to be the main threat, though a couple damaging wind gusts
are possible in association with downward momentum transport within
the heaviest rain/hail cores. The MCS is expected to move out of the
WAA regime, which may encourage a gradual weakening trend with time.
As such, the severe threat appears isolated enough such that a WW
issuance is not anticipated at this time.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34649862 35579787 35599719 35349647 34949603 34079597
            33569614 33309695 33379805 33719861 34649862 

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