SPC MD 1041



MD 1041 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS

MD 1041 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2019

Areas affected...Much of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 091907Z - 092100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will become increasing likely across
western North Texas southward into much of central Texas through
mid/late afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued
within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery trends in conjunction with
subjective surface analysis suggest that inhibition continues to
erode with increasingly common towering cumulus across the Big
Country, near and south of where south/southwestward-advancing
outflow is intercepting a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front.
The air mass along/east of the front is very unstable southward into
Edwards Plateau/Hill Country vicinity where lower 70s F surface
dewpoints are contributing to upwards of 4000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Thunderstorms are likely to continue to develop and increase in
coverage/intensity through the afternoon. Although
low/mid-tropospheric winds are not overly strong, factors such as
veering winds with height, somewhat stronger high-level westerlies,
as well as very strong buoyancy could allow for some initial intense
supercells. With time, storms should tend to organize into
southward-moving clusters with heightened wind damage potential into
a hot/very unstable environment across much of central Texas/Edwards
Plateau.

..Guyer/Thompson.. 06/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31740024 32579944 32639887 31929899 31479834 31789542
            29899745 29840085 31030109 31740024 

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