SPC MD 1043


MD 1043 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2019

Areas affected...portions of western and central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349...

Valid 092255Z - 100030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349

SUMMARY...Severe, potentially damaging wind threat will continue to
shift southward across parts of western into central TX this
evening, including the greater Austin metro area. Large hail also is
possible. A tornado threat may persist in the short term, through
damaging winds are expected to be the main concern through the
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...An intense supercell over Coryell and Lampasas Counties
has recently produced a tornado near Copperas Cove, TX. This cell
has generated a few hail and strong wind reports over the last hour
or so. Latest radar analysis has shown a myriad of boundaries across
the vicinity including several outflow boundaries produced by the
supercell itself in addition to other cells further east. Also noted
were horizontal convective rolls feeding into the inflow region of
the cell. These interactions are likely enhancing tornado potential
locally, as well as driving further convective development westward
into Llano County and eastward into Milam County. 

A very moist and strongly unstable airmass resides downstream of
this convection with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s
with temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees F. Steep lapse
rates greater than 8 deg C/km atop this moist boundary layer is
aiding in MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg amidst 30-40 kt northwesterly
effective shear. This environment should continue to foster
organized severe convection and upscale growth into the evening
hours. Visible satellite imagery shows additional deepening of
cumulus westward along a prefrontal trough/convergence band and
additional development is possible further west across WW 349. Given
the volatile thermodynamic environment, damaging winds (some
possibly significant) will remain possible the next several hours
across the WW 349 area.

..Leitman.. 06/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   32109890 31749867 31749847 31469826 31709770 31609761
            31889702 31709692 31819669 31819652 32019603 32079544
            31889545 31589524 31509572 31359565 31119575 31079601
            30959626 30739645 30719661 30559694 30289664 29929710
            29649761 29369787 29399816 29129839 29249879 29089880
            29080072 29300092 29450112 29560130 29670138 29730145
            29780174 30310175 30330169 30440172 30530162 30620166
            30660179 30900190 30970197 30980211 31080237 31080220
            31080128 31560126 31570088 31690087 31710024 32070023
            32080015 32109890 

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