SPC MD 1045


MD 1045 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2019

Areas affected...portions of southern TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349...

Valid 100117Z - 100215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 349

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue across WW 349 this
evening. A watch replacement may be needed for WW 349 as threat may
continue beyond the 03z expiration time, as well as extend south of
the current watch boundary.

DISCUSSION...A severe line with bowing elements at time continue
this evening just north of San Antonio and extending east-west from
Bastrop to Edwards Counties. Latest measured wind gusts from KAUS
have reached 66 mph, with other measured and estimated reports from
70 to 80 mph across other parts of Travis County. Additionally,
isolated reports of around 1 inch hail have also been noted. Eastern
portions of the line have been surging southward at around 30-40 kt
while western portions of the line have a slower forward progression
at about 20-30 kt. Regardless, severe gusts have been noted along
the entirety of the line.

Given a very warm/moist and unstable boundary layer ahead of the
line, expect severe potential to continue into late evening and move
outside of WW 349 and WW 350. 00z RAOB from CRP and DRT continue to
show very steep lapse rates and MUCAPE greater than 4000 J/kg. While
loss of daytime heating will further increase inhibition,
temperatures currently in the 90s to near 100 degrees will continue
to support intense downdrafts and severe threat likely will wane
only slowly with time and southward extent. A new watch may be
needed to replace portions of WW 349 as the threat may continue
beyond the 03z expiration time. Additional counties in portions of
WFO EWX and WFO CRP may need to be included in this potential new
severe thunderstorm watch as well.

..Leitman.. 06/10/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   28750065 29510077 30190069 30399985 30419855 30149719
            29829711 29429765 29249810 29039813 28749776 28459722
            28119696 27119736 27089803 27099953 27379956 27629970
            28020008 28320040 28750065 

Read more

Source link

  • Editor