SPC MD 1047



MD 1047 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA…NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1047
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Areas affected...Southern North Dakota...northern South Dakota and
adjacent portions of west central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111814Z - 112045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Initially scattered strong storms may gradually
consolidate ahead of a southward advancing cold front across
southern North Dakota by 4-5 PM CDT.  Some of these storms may pose
a risk for hail and strong surface gusts, but much of this is
expected to remain below severe limits.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development now appears well
underway as convective temperatures are reached, generally within
lee surface trough and ahead of a southward advancing cold front
across the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.  This is occurring in
the presence of steep lapse rates, particularly in low-levels as
modest moisture is allowing for deep boundary layer mixing (and CAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg).  However, mean northwesterly ambient lower/mid
tropospheric wind fields across much of the region are only on the
order of 10-20 kt.

While this environment could support some hail and localized strong
surface gusts in stronger storms, activity seems likely to remain
mostly sub-severe, at least initially.  As the afternoon progresses,
though, models do suggest that the cold front could become the focus
for a consolidating line or cluster of storms as it approaches the
North and South Dakota state border area.  And it might not be out
of the question that the leading edge of consolidating outflows may
be accompanied by a risk for strong surface gusts on a broader
scale, which could perhaps approach severe limits.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45080321 47080215 46990018 46929826 47249550 45699698
            45209815 44920019 45080321 

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