SPC MD 1049



MD 1049 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352… FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS…NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE

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Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0820 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

Areas affected...southwest Kansas...northwest Oklahoma and the
northeast Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352...

Valid 120120Z - 120215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 352
continues.

SUMMARY...Cluster of storms capable of mainly large hail is expected
to continue south southeast next couple hours, eventually spreading
into northwest Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Storms that initiated along a cold front across
southwest KS have matured with supercell structures indicated on
radar. The latest objective analysis shows storms are approaching
the eastern fringe of a very narrow corridor of instability, but
storms may continue in a more or less south-southeast direction
along the instability gradient through mid evening. The modified 00Z
RAOB from Dodge City indicates around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, steep
850-500 mb lapse rates and near 50 kt 0-6 km shear. This environment
will continue to promote supercells with large hail next couple
hours. However, surface-based convective inhibition resulting from
the onset of nocturnal cooling should contribute to gradual
weakening trend, especially by 03Z. 

Additional storms may develop later this evening across southern KS
into northern OK within an evolving warm advection regime, but these
storms will be elevated above a stabilizing surface layer, limiting
primary threat to marginally severe hail.

..Dial.. 06/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36959957 38099913 38349840 37209825 36329852 36099953
            36959957 

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