SPC MD 1051



MD 1051 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA

MD 1051 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

Areas affected...northern and central parts of the FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121445Z - 121645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts associated with wet microbursts capable of
45-60mph gusts are possible beginning late this morning through the
early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a cluster of general thunderstorms
over North FL with a trailing band of storms extending southwest
into the east-central Gulf of Mexico to the west of Tampa Bay.  The
12z Jacksonville and Tampa Bay raobs showed a very moist troposphere
with precipitable water near 2 inches and MLCAPE around 1800 J/kg. 
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies east of the
ongoing thunderstorm activity resulting in strong surface heating. 
Surface temperatures as of 10am EDT have warmed into the middle 80s
degrees F with upper 80s expected in the next few hours via
additional heating.  Also noted on the area raobs and recent 88D VAD
data show weak southwest flow through the troposphere.  

Short-term model guidance (time-lagged HRRR) and forecaster thinking
is additional storm development is likely through early afternoon
from near Tampa Bay northeast into the Jacksonville-Daytona Beach
corridor.  The stronger updraft pulses will correspondingly be
capable of stronger downdrafts and a couple of wet microbursts are
possible.  Although sub-severe hail is possible, localized wind
damage is the primary risk with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28548288 29588182 30198134 28818076 27548249 27538280
            28548288 

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