SPC MD 1052



MD 1052 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MO

MD 1052 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

Areas affected...portions of far eastern KS into western and central
MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122149Z - 122315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong, locally damaging winds will be possible
across parts of far eastern KS into western/central MO this
afternoon and early evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms spanning west to east from Osage
County KS to Cooper County MO will continue to track south/southeast
this afternoon and early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts have
been measured with these storms, with Lee's Summit recording the
strongest gust of 56 kt. Olathe reported 38 kt and Kansas City
International recorded 45 kt and small hail. These storms have
developed as a shortwave trough over the mid-MS Valley continues to
deepen and a midlevel jet streak around 40-60 kt at 500 mb glances
the region. Temperatures are not overly warm, with highs currently
reading mainly in the low to mid 70s with mid to upper 50s
dewpoints. As a result, MLCAPE is generally weak, around 500-1000
J/kg. Deep layer shear also is rather unimpressive, with effective
bulk shear values around 20-25 kt max. However, 25-40 kt of 850-700
mb flow is likely aiding in some loose organization of convection.
Furthermore, while temperatures remain on the cool side for this
time of year, low level lapse rates are quite steep, at around 8-8.5
C/km. As a result, some stronger outflow winds may continue to
produce near-severe gusts over the next few hours. Given the overall
marginal environmental conditions, the severe threat is expected to
remain limited/sporadic and a watch is not expected at this time.
Storms are expected to gradually weaken with time into this evening
as loss of daytime heating stabilizes the boundary layer.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38909402 38949346 38899239 37889211 37499192 36919232
            36809309 36789336 36779382 37229455 37689494 38459520
            38679518 38839474 38909402 

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