SPC MD 1053


MD 1053 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131904Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop this afternoon
across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Isolated large hail and
wind damage are expected to be the primary threats. Weather watch
issuance may be needed over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a lee trough across
eastern New Mexico. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is
present along the trough with surface dewpoints generally the 50s F.
In response, moderate instability has developed across eastern New
Mexico where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range. As low-level convergence increases along the surface
trough over the next hour or two, convective initiation is expected.
Convection should develop near the instability axis along the
eastern edge of the Sacramento and Sangre De Cristo mountains. This
activity will develop into thunderstorms and spread
east-southeastward toward the New Mexico-Texas state-line late this
afternoon. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings show
0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range owing mostly to directional
shear in the low to mid-levels. This will be sufficient for isolated
supercell development. Initially, large hail will be the primary
threat. However, as the cell updrafts mature, a few damaging wind
gusts will also be possible.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   33480290 34680248 35540236 36270259 36630298 36790358
            36650419 36060459 35050511 34620523 33790544 32810543
            32400499 32340448 32610369 33480290 

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