SPC MD 1054



MD 1054 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA…NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA…WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MARYLAND…NORTHERN VIRGINIA

MD 1054 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1054
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019

Areas affected...Parts of western into southern
Pennsylvania...northeast West Virginia...western into central
Maryland...northern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131951Z - 132145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few marginally severe wind gusts are possible with some
of the stronger cores or linear segments. The sparse, marginal
nature of the wind threat precludes a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Cells have gradually aggregated into multicellular
complexes and quasi-linear segments over the past few hours, amidst
a marginally unstable, but modestly sheared environment (with over
35 knots of bulk effective shear noted). The notable deep-layer
shear is likely contributing to the aforementioned storm
organization, where slightly more efficient downward transport of
higher momentum air may be supported, which may in turn lead to a
few marginally severe gusts. Still, marginal buoyancy will likely
mitigate a more widespread damaging wind threat and as such, a WW
issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   41027859 40277757 39787713 39187681 38917685 38787740
            38767821 39007928 39097970 39358015 39998042 40548019
            41027939 41027859 

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