SPC MD 1055


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Mesoscale Discussion 1055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 132358Z - 140130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may produce strong gusts and hail the next
few hours across parts of eastern CO and perhaps into western KS.

DISCUSSION...A couple of isolated, but intense storms have developed
over portions of northeast CO this evening. MRMS MESH indicated
these cells may be producing hail near 1 inch in diameter.
Additionally, given a dry sub-cloud layer with dewpoints generally
in the 40s, some potential for strong outflow winds exists. Further
east toward western KS, dewpoints increase to the low to mid 50s as
modest boundary layer moisture streams northward on 20-30 kt
southerly low level flow. If storms can remain semi-organized as
they track southeastward toward a more unstable airmass where a
modestly increasing low level jet develops through the evening, some
isolated potential for strong to severe storms will persist through
the evening hours. That being said, the 00z RAOB from DDC does not
instill a great deal of confidence in the evolution of a greater
severe threat given strong MLCIN. 

Otherwise, as the boundary layer continues to cool with loss of
daytime heating, severe wind potential should decrease in the
absence of better organized cells. Some marginal hail threat may
persist given modestly steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable deep
layer shear, but this is contingent on sustained convection
continuing southeastward with time. Given the overall isolated and
somewhat conditional nature of the threat, a watch is not expected
at this time.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38240079 37640062 37210088 36970137 37040249 37200310
            38060398 39360448 40430452 40680363 40700293 40150226
            39060129 38240079 

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