SPC MD 1060



MD 1060 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141821Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop/increase in coverage
this afternoon and move generally east with a risk for large hail
and strong wind gusts.  Overall severe threat with the strongest
storms should be isolated, and a watch is not anticipated. 
Thunderstorms coverage/intensity trends will be monitored closely
and a watch would be considered if greater coverage of severe storms
appears more probable.

DISCUSSION...A cold front extended east-west across far northern MT
at 18Z, and heating of lower-mid 50s surface dew points had yielded
weak surface-based buoyancy and with diminishing CINH.  Scattered
thunderstorms were already noted, mainly over the higher terrain,
and additional development/intensification of ongoing storms is
expected this afternoon, aided by ascent with a mid-level impulse
moving east over western MT.  Additional heating will result in
MLCAPE of 1000 to locally 1500 J/kg in the presence of 30-40 kts of
westerly deep-layer shear.  This environment will support multicells
and a couple supercells with a risk for large hail and strong wind
gusts.  With time, a couple of small clusters of storms may move
into eastern MT with a continued severe hail/wind risk.

The anticipated coverage of severe storms is expected to remain
isolated and thus a watch is not currently anticipated.  If greater
coverage appears to become more probable then a watch may be needed.

..Bunting/Kerr.. 06/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   45520657 45860842 46340998 46921159 47881286 48721261
            48530996 48470703 48380579 48170514 47000454 46170502
            45520657 

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