SPC MD 1061


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Mesoscale Discussion 1061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Western Kansas...Southwestern

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 141844Z - 142115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
northern and eastern Colorado into western Kansas this afternoon.
Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible with the
stronger thunderstorms. Weather watch issuance may be needed across
the region over the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1003 mb low over
southeast Colorado with a mesoscale surface trough extending
northwest into central Colorado. A cold front is moving
southeastward across eastern Colorado with surface dewpoints along
and behind the front generally in the lower to mid 40s F. Steep
lapse rates are present over the relatively dry airmass with SBCAPE
values estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg by the RAP.

Thunderstorms are currently developing in the higher terrain from
west of Denver southeastward to the Palmer Divide. This convection
will move east-southeastward into the High Plains late this
afternoon where forecast soundings show 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40
kt range. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will be
sufficient for a severe threat with hail and strong gusty winds
possible. As the storms move eastward into far eastern Colorado,
where moderate instability will be in place, a more substantial
severe threat is likely. The environment should support supercells
with isolated large hail and wind damage late this afternoon.

..Broyles/Kerr.. 06/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41180382 40360555 39780580 39020502 37940408 37050384
            36670330 36780217 37710132 39730098 40800209 41180382 

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