SPC MD 1062



MD 1062 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO…WEST TEXAS

MD 1062 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1062
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Areas affected...Far Southeast New Mexico...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 142041Z - 142315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat appears likely to develop across
parts of southeast New Mexico and west Texas over the next few
hours. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats.
Weather watch issuance may be needed across parts of the region late
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over
southeast Colorado with a trough extending southward from the low
into far eastern New Mexico. A dryline is present across the western
Texas Panhandle extending southward to west of Lubbock. Cells have
initiated to the west of the dryline near Clovis, New Mexico. Other
cells are beginning to form south-southwest of Midland to the east
of the Davis Mountains. The airmass across west Texas is moderately
unstable with the RAP estimating MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 3000
J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings show 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In spite of marginal deep-layer shear
across much of west Texas, the unstable thermodynamic environment
will be sufficient for an isolated severe threat late this
afternoon. Hail and strong gusty winds will be possible with
thunderstorms that can develop in spite of the warm air aloft.

..Broyles/Kerr.. 06/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   34989994 35740008 35860079 35300169 34210248 32780358
            31730345 31060294 30660226 30680157 31380074 32760036
            34989994 

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