SPC MD 1066



MD 1066 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST KANSAS TO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI

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Mesoscale Discussion 1066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska/Northeast Kansas to far
southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150424Z - 150600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail will remain a possibility along the
Nebraska/Kansas border vicinity, with the potential for locally
damaging winds across far southeast Nebraska and possibly into
northeast Kansas and far southwest Iowa/far northwest Missouri.
Convective trends are being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch.

DISCUSSION...Earlier semi-discrete storms have congealed and
gradually grown upscale across far southeast/south-central Nebraska
south of Interstate 80, extending from near/south of Lincoln
southwestward to around 40 miles SSE of Hastings (just north of the
Nebraska/Kansas border) as of 1115 PM CDT. Large hail will remain
possible in the short-term with the southwestern flank of these
storms, although quickly approaching (northeastward-moving) outflow
from central Kansas storms puts the longevity of the most
intense/southwest flank storms into question. 

Storms should otherwise gradually grow upscale and modestly
accelerate east-southeastward across southeast Nebraska. While
low/mid-tropospheric winds are relatively weak across Nebraska, a
moderately strong southwesterly low-level jet has increased across
southern/eastern Kansas into Missouri, which could at least somewhat
influence storm sustenance/forward propagation. While continued cold
pool development/upscale quasi-linear organization could contribute
to locally damaging winds, the overall extent/magnitude of the
damaging wind threat is a bit uncertain given factors such as
increasing convective inhibition etc. Trends will continue to be
closely monitored.

..Guyer.. 06/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39349693 39939836 40319776 40909607 40679546 40299507
            39559549 39349693 

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