SPC MD 1068



MD 1068 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 357…358… FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

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Mesoscale Discussion 1068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Areas affected...southeast Kansas...northeast Oklahoma and southwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357...358...

Valid 150704Z - 150830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357, 358
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for strong to severe wind gusts is expected to
persist next 1-2 hours across southeast Kansas into north central
and northeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Early this morning a line of storms continues from
southeast KS to northern OK. Leading gust front across southeast KS
is moving east at around 45 kt. Despite weakening reflectivity cores
along the leading gust front, base velocity and VWP data indicate a
rear inflow jet with winds around 50 kt within 1000 ft of the
surface, suggesting strong to at least marginally severe gusts are
possibly reaching the ground. Stronger reflectivity cores in
northern OK are farther behind the gust front suggesting a stronger
cap with higher LFCS, but recent mesonet observations have indicated
strong gusts to 50 mph with this activity. It is probable this MCS
will continue to pose a risk for strong to severe gusts during the
next 1 to 2 hours from southeast KS into north central and northeast
OK where the atmosphere remains moderately unstable, but where
convective inhibition could be a limiting factor for a longer
duration threat.

..Dial.. 06/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37829628 37939571 37969514 37669459 36799457 36129588
            36189803 36819639 37829628 

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