SPC MD 1070



MD 1070 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA…SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota...southern
Minnesota and western/central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 151730Z - 151930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorm development is expected across the
area through early/mid afternoon.  Large hail and damaging wind
gusts are the primary threats and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
needed prior to 2 or 3 pm CDT.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have developed across southern MN
as of 1715Z, in the vicinity of a quasi-stationary front that then
extends northwest into eastern ND.  A cold front was also noted from
a surface low near Sioux City, IA southwest across western KS. 
Despite a thin cirrus canopy, daytime heating has already resulted
in pockets of moderate MLCAPE, with additional destabilization this
afternoon further eroding remaining CINH.  An impulse embedded
within moderate west/northwest mid-level flow will approach the
discussion area over the next several hours, contributing to a
gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity from eastern
SD/southern MN south across western/central IA.

Westerly deep-layer shear of 25-35 kts will be in place this
afternoon, sufficient for storm organization given eventual
moderate-strong instability.  Multicell and a few supercell
structures are expected, with a risk for large hail and damaging
winds. Storms may merge into loosely-organized clusters with time
while moving east/southeast through late afternoon/early evening.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed in the 2 to 3 pm CDT time
frame.

..Bunting/Kerr.. 06/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON   44019698 45119732 45589699 45739592 45599466 45239369
            44809352 44239311 43609283 42829256 41849249 40809301
            40879471 41049548 41409588 44019698 

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