SPC MD 1072



MD 1072 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO…NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO…TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES…SOUTHWEST KANSAS

MD 1072 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Northeast New Mexico...Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles...Southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 151850Z - 152115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop across southeast
Colorado southeastward into the Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. Weather watch
issuance may be needed across parts of the region this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a post-frontal
airmass in place across much of the southern High Plains. As surface
temperatures have warmed early this afternoon, thunderstorms have
developed in the higher terrain of central and eastern Colorado.
This convection will move east-southeastward into the High Plains
over the next few hours. Although instability is relatively weak
across southeast Colorado, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads have
become large along an east-to-west corridor in the Arkansas River
Valley. As cells move into this area where low-level lapse rates are
very steep, isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. Hail will
also accompany the stronger updrafts.

Further southeast in the Texas Panhandle, a moist airmass is present
with surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s F which is contributing to
MLCAPE values mostly in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, according to
the RAP. A capping inversion has so far suppressed convective
development. However, isolated thunderstorms could develop this
afternoon in the western Texas Panhandle where the cap is
considerably weaker. This convection along the storms moving
southeastward out of southeastern Colorado would pose a severe
threat. Wind damage and hail would be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms.

..Broyles/Kerr.. 06/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34790222 35390058 35970023 36930031 38140102 38660154
            38980277 39000357 38740413 38290437 37540423 36340407
            35810374 35210308 34790222 

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