SPC MD 1073



MD 1073 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS…NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Areas affected...portions of the Texas South Plains...northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 151946Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of the
Texas South Plains, Panhandle and northwest Texas late this
afternoon with a risk for mainly damaging winds.  A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued by 21Z/4 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Mid-afternoon surface analysis analyzed a cold front
from far northwest OK into the Texas South Plains, where the
boundary curved northwest into the Raton Mesa region of northeast
NM. A weak surface low was located east of Lubbock, where a dryline
extended south into southwest TX.  The moist sector was
characterized by lower 90s surface temperatures and 65-70 deg F dew
points.  Impressively steep mid-level lapse rates (8.5 - 9 deg C/KM)
have contributed to very strong instability, with MLCAPE of 2500 to
4000 J/kg at 19Z. West of the dryline, temperatures have approached
100 Deg F.  

Latest mesoanalysis shows substantial CINH remains in place given
the stout EML, though continued reduction in convective inhibition
is expected over the next few hours as ascent with a low-amplitude
mid-level wave approaches from the west.  Deep-layer shear is modest
at best, with 25-35 kts expected across the area through early
evening.  The thermodynamic environment would strongly support cold
pool generation and the potential for damaging winds, possibly
significant, as an evolving convective line lifts northeast towards
southwest Oklahoma this evening.

Trends in visible satellite imagery are being monitored and a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued prior to 21Z/4 pm CDT.

..Bunting/Kerr.. 06/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   31940060 33300090 33920124 34720156 35220060 35349944
            35089836 34039798 32739872 31939942 31940060 

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