SPC MD 1132



MD 1132 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO NORTHWESTERN LA

MD 1132 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of east TX into northwestern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 191110Z - 191245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An ongoing line of storms may pose an isolated
strong/gusty wind threat in the short term. Watch issuance remains
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Two previously separate lines of storms (one from
southern OK and the other from north-central TX) have recently
merged across east TX. A corresponding increase in radar
reflectivity and cooling cloud tops have recently been noted. Strong
inbound velocities are also present across east TX along the apex of
this line per KSHV radar. These storms are encountering mainly
elevated instability, with MUCAPE likely ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg
from latest mesoanalysis estimates. However, the low-level inversion
across east TX and northwestern LA is likely shallow (about 800-1000
ft AGL) based on RAP forecast soundings. There is some potential for
strong/gusty downdraft winds to breach the low-level inversion and
reach the surface given the strong velocities occurring on radar.
Observed gusts from various stations have generally ranged from
35-40 kt across east TX over the past hour or so. But, isolated
strong to perhaps damaging winds could still occur. Watch issuance
remains unlikely in the short term, but convective trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON   32009535 32289490 32709449 32989431 32989339 32839273
            31919270 31459326 31329427 31799532 32009535 

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