SPC MD 1133



MD 1133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS…INDIANA…AND WESTERN OHIO

MD 1133 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1133
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern
Illinois...Indiana...and western Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 191634Z - 191830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase and intensification of thunderstorms
could yield at least some increase in risk for potentially damaging
wind gusts by 3-5 PM EDT.  While it is not yet certain that a severe
weather watch will be needed, trends will continue to be monitored
for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...An increase in thunderstorm development has become
evident within an arcing corridor, east-southeast of a remnant
elongated cyclonic mid-level circulation, across central through
southeastern Illinois.  This is coinciding with diurnal boundary
layer destabilization within the warm sector of a broad weak area of
low pressure now centered over north central Missouri, and forecast
to only slowly shift eastward today.

West-southwesterly deep layer mean ambient wind fields across much
of Illinois and Indiana into Ohio are only on the order of 20-25 kt,
with substantive strengthening associated with a mid-level speed
maximum propagating east of the south central Plains likely to
remain to the southwest of the region.  This seems likely to limit
severe weather potential, in general.  However, as inhibition
continues to weaken for warming, seasonably moist boundary layer
parcels characterized by CAPE up to around 1500 J/kg, there appears
potential for further intensification and upscale growth of
convection that could gradually become accompanied by at least some
increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts through 19-21Z.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   40868738 41128566 40818466 40298364 39148398 38248585
            38438719 39328896 39699052 41018983 40868738 

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