SPC MD 1437



MD 1437 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN WYOMING

MD 1437 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Areas affected...southern Montana and far northwestern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111944Z - 112145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convective coverage is expected to increase through the
afternoon, with an isolated wind/hail risk likely.  A WW issuance is
not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/radar and lightning imagery indicates
expanding convective coverage from the Big Horns westward into the
higher terrain of southwestern Montana.  This convection was in a
continually destabilizing environment, with insolation beneath
7-8C/km mid-level lapse rates resulting in 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE
across the discussion area.  Additionally, 30-40 kt mid-level flow
atop weak low-level flow suggests enough shear will be present for
organization of cells along with some risk for a few damaging wind
gusts and hail with the strongest convection.  This risk should be
isolated however, especially considering the lack of forcing for
ascent aloft across the region.  

Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not
expected through the remainder of the afternoon.

..Cook/Grams.. 07/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   46081255 46621150 46771004 46850871 46420820 45330793
            44640873 44681063 44761193 45171252 45721272 46081255 

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