SPC MD 1439



MD 1439 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY…SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA…DELAWARE…CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MARYLAND…EASTERN VIRGINIA

MD 1439 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central New Jersey...southeast
Pennsylvania...Delaware...central into eastern Maryland...eastern
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112159Z - 120000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for mainly isolated damaging wind gusts is
expected to continue with the more intense line segments moving
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. The isolated nature of the
severe threat precludes a WW issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...Relatively chaotic multicellular convection has
recently grown upscale into two predominantly linear segments over
the past few hours, with a slight uptick in convective intensity
noted. In addition, ample buoyancy, with up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, is
present out ahead of the southern linear segment, with over 1000
J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the northern segment. Relatively weak flow and
subsequent speed-shear throughout the troposphere suggest that the
merging of cold pools is the predominant mechanism for convective
organization. Nonetheless, the lack of stronger shear suggests that
damaging wind gust potential will be confined to cases of the
localized water-loading of downdrafts in the stronger convective
cores. As such, given the isolated nature of the wind damage threat,
a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri.. 07/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   36987933 38617756 40497553 40517467 39757431 37737535
            36537659 36567863 36987933 

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