SPC MD 1452



MD 1452 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST LA…FAR SOUTHERN MS…MOBILE BAY

MD 1452 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1452
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Areas affected...southeast LA...far southern MS...Mobile Bay

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 130653Z - 130800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A storm or two may acquire transient rotation/weak
supercell characteristics overnight.  A brief/weak tornado cannot be
ruled out.  The forecast coverage/magnitude of the tornado risk will
probably preclude a tornado watch issuance unless observational
trends change.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KLIX shows a storm with weak
supercell structure southeast of New Orleans moving north within an
outer convective band from Tropical Storm Barry.  The 06z Slidell,
LA raob depicted weak buoyancy (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE) with a very
moist profile and poor lapse rates.  However, inputting the observed
storm motion of storms near the central Gulf Coast is yielding
between 200-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH.  Given the quasi-discrete storm
mode in the aforementioned environment in the northeast quadrant of
Tropical Storm Barry, it is possible weak low-level mesocyclones
could episodically develop over the next several hours.  A
brief/weak tornado is the main threat.

..Smith/Guyer.. 07/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29298974 30579056 30988933 30508702 30028702 29868834
            28788873 29298974 

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