SPC MD 1453



MD 1453 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS

MD 1453 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1453
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Areas affected...portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131653Z - 131930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase over much of the Carolinas
into the afternoon along and south of a surface front. Damaging wind
gusts are possible, but a watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows building cumulus
including a handful of storms on the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians and along/south of a surface front running east-west
across southern/eastern North Carolina. A very warm, moist airmass
is in place with surface dewpoints in the 70s F and temperatures in
the mid 80s to low 90s F. This has led to MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg
per mesoanalysis and steep low-level lapse rates present across the
region. Given this environment including forecast
soundings/mesoanalysis showing 1200+ J/kg of DCAPE, damaging wind
gusts are possible across the region as storms develop and move
east-southeast. Multicellular convection is expected with the weak
flow/shear present over the region, and storms will form off outflow
boundaries and as areas reach their convective temperatures after
the initial convection. Given, the marginal, unorganized severe
threat, a weather watch issuance is unlikely.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...
FFC...

LAT...LON   34878374 35468267 35638194 35238091 35087968 35157888
            35547840 35977786 36287734 36407685 36327614 35767579
            35227617 34607677 34107800 33467911 33108039 32948150
            33528251 33878309 34318355 34878374 

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