SPC MD 1455


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Mesoscale Discussion 1455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Areas affected...eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 131912Z - 132115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated storms capable of severe hail are
expected this afternoon over eastern South Dakota, and possibly into
bordering Minnesota and Iowa later today.

DISCUSSION...Weak outflow/convergence currently extends from eastern
SD into northern IA with the leading MCV now over northeast IA.
Surface analysis shows locally backed surface winds north of the
boundary, from northeast SD into western MN where temperatures were
in the low 80s F. To the south, temperatures were warming into the
upper 80s to near 90 F which is contributing to MUCAPE in excess of
3000 J/kg. 

Evident in satellite imagery is a remnant MCV moving eastward across
the Dakotas, with objective analysis indicating cooling aloft with
this feature. Meanwhile, visible imagery shows storms beginning to
form along the boundary and ahead of the MCV. 

Given continued heating and sufficient low-level convergence, at
least isolated strong to severe storms are expected, with
sufficiently long hodographs to support cellular storm mode. Cool
temperatures aloft will favor severe hail in the strongest cells.
Unless coverage increases substantially, a watch is not anticipated.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 07/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   43319823 43409890 43509971 43720009 44130015 44689953
            44909874 44819762 44429675 44159632 43889610 43359610
            43219663 43239753 43319823 

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