SPC MD 1461



MD 1461 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MS

MD 1461 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Areas affected...southeast MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 141024Z - 141130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Several weak mini supercells have recently developed
within the outer periphery of the eastern band of convection from TC
Barry.  A weak/brief tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery during the past 30 minutes has shown an
intensification of low-level mesocyclone development over southeast
MS.  Surface analysis indicates a maritime front has largely stalled
over southeast MS eastward into southwest AL due to the slow
northward movement of Barry.  KDGX and KMOB VAD data indicate the
largest hodographs are closer to I-20 than I-10 where hodograph size
is limited.  It appears the potential for low-level mesocyclones
will concentrate from near Hattiesburg to the area east of Jackson
during the next few hours.  The small spatial extent of the risk
area and expected limited tornado risk will probably preclude a
tornado watch issuance.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30648958 31318956 32168977 32298948 31988899 30838886
            30648958 

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