SPC MD 1514



MD 1514 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521… FOR CENTRAL SD

MD 1514 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...central SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521...

Valid 180406Z - 180500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind remains possible as storms move
through central SD next hour or two, but a longer term severe threat
and need for a downstream WW remains uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION...Small cluster of storms over central SD is moving east
of WW 521. The atmosphere downstream is strongly unstable (2000-3000
J/kg MLCAPE). However, temperatures have fallen into the low 70s F,
and convective inhibition has undergone a substantial increase.
Nevertheless, storms have consolidated a cold pool and an MCV
circulation is evident based on radar data. These mesoscale forcing
mechanisms might be sufficient to sustain the storms another couple
hours, but a longer-term severe threat remains uncertain given the
increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment.

..Dial.. 07/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...

LAT...LON   44780020 45310030 45629938 45199888 44659887 44069957
            44220026 44780020 

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