SPC MD 1520


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Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 190357Z - 190600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Cluster of storms will continue east through southern
Wisconsin into the early morning hours. A few locally strong to
damaging wind gusts remain possible. Though a WW might be needed,
will hold off on issuance unless storms begin to show signs of
better organization.

DISCUSSION...Cluster of storms over southeast MN moving into
southwest WI are developing within warm advection regime on nose of
a strengthening low-level jet. The atmosphere in this region is
moderately unstable with 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE. However, a
stabilizing surface layer suggests storms are probably slightly
elevated. Nevertheless, effective bulk shear around 40 kt has been
sufficient for a few supercell structures, but recent trends have
been for most storms to consolidate into clusters. Storms will
probably continue east into southern WI along instability gradient
next few hours and will pose some risk for mainly isolated strong to
damaging wind gusts. If storms can consolidate a cold pool and begin
to signs of forward propagation then a more organized severe threat
would be possible, but confidence in this scenario is not
particularly high.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   44309147 44588976 44318860 43958800 43138847 42898922
            43249072 43609199 44309147 

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