SPC MD 1663



MD 1663 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA

MD 1663 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 071650Z - 071815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected through the afternoon
and evening. A watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form along a surface cold front
in central North Carolina. The airmass ahead of these storms is
already very unstable with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
and temperatures approaching 90 yielding MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500
J/kg. Mid-level flow around 40 knots will provide sufficient shear
for storm organization. Expect one or more multicell clusters/line
segments to move across eastern North Carolina and southeast
Virginia through the afternoon and early evening. While mid-level
lapse rates are quite weak (~ 6 C/km), expect storms to have some
hail threat given the expected storm organization in a very unstable
environment. Low-level flow will be a limiting factor to wind
damage, but internal thermodynamic processes in the hot and unstable
airmass will support downdrafts that will be capable of damaging
winds.

..Bentley/Goss.. 08/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35888010 36507916 37397858 38137770 38467684 38447634
            38167605 37847591 36817599 36117557 35417547 35137588
            34707676 34317760 34137797 34167840 34527986 34688033
            35158039 35888010 

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